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UN pegs India's 2003 GDP growth at 5.1%
April 17, 2003 13:44 IST
A United Nation's body on Thursday pegged down India's economic growth prospects to 5.1 per cent in 2003 from an earlier projection of 6.0 per cent, mainly due to the impact of Iraq war, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and dampened growth in the US and EU.
However, Research and Information System for Non-Aligned and Other Developing Countries director general, Nagesh Kumar, said India's GDP may not be affected so adversely and it may post 5.5-5.6 per cent growth this year.
"Since the Iraq war was short, my hunch is that India's GDP will grow in the region of 5.5-5.6 per cent. If oil prices fall, we might end up with 6.0 per cent growth," he said releasing the UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (Escap) survey for 2003 in New Delhi.
Even after the downgrading of growth prospects, India continues to be one of the fastest growing nations after China, slated to grow by 7.5 per cent, Vietnam (7.0 per cent) and Fiji (5.2 per cent).
While global growth rate has been revised to 2.3 per cent from the earlier stance of 2.8 per cent, the GDP growth for the developing nations of Asia-Pacific region was revised to 5.0 from 5.4 per cent.
"Escap region performed well in 2002. Growth was based on stimulative fiscal and monetary policies and on strong intra-regional trade. However, prospects for 2003 are conditioned by war in Iraq and its aftermath, impact of SARS and growth in US, Japan and EU," the report said.
While the survey estimates made in March this year place India's GDP growth rate at 6.0 per cent, latest available estimates obtained from International Monetary Fund and domestic sources put the figure at 5.1 per cent.
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