If the rainfall in July this year was in sharp contrast to that in the same month last year, August seems no different. July 2002 was the driest in several years, with rainfall 39 per cent below normal.

But July 2003 turned out to be one of the wettest, clocking an 8 per cent above normal rainfall.

Again, while last year the monsoon had revived to an extent in August, it has been subdued this year. Each of the first three weeks of August recorded 12-14 per cent below normal precipitation.

The cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the monsoon on June 1, after being higher than normal till July-end, dropped to the normal level by the third week of August.

On the whole, 32 of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions received normal or above normal cumulative precipitation and only four sub-divisions recorded deficient rainfall.

The India Meteorological Department's prediction that the monsoon rainfall this year will remain at around 98 per cent of the long-period average could prove to be true.

Moreover, the agricultural scene has continued to improve despite the subdued monsoon. Krishi Bhawan is confident of a record harvest.

Perceptible gains are anticipated in the production of most crops, including rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and pulses.

But, the output of jute, mesta and sugarcane could decline marginally due to reduced plantings. The position of cotton is not yet clear.

Though the planting of paddy, the staple kharif cereal, is still in progress, agricultural experts are forecasting a bumper harvest.

The Food Corporation of India is gearing up to procure around 20 million tonnes of rice under the price support operation in the forthcoming kharif marketing season, against 16.2 million tonnes last year.

This estimate is based on reports of larger than normal paddy plantings in several states, notably Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

According to reports received from states, paddy was planted on about 25.6 million hectares by August 18, against just 20.8 million hectares in the same period last year.

The total acreage could touch or cross 40 million hectares this year.

Among the kharif coarse cereals, maize has registered a 10 per cent area expansion at 6.5 million hectares, against 5.5 million hectares last season.

The normal area under maize cultivation is 5.9 million hectares. The total acreage in coarse grains so far is about 20.8 million hectares, against 15.8 million hectares last season and a normal of 23.1 million hectares.

The states that have reported higher area coverage under coarse cereals are Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

The largest area expansion has been under kharif pulses. The total area sown so far is estimated at 13 million hectares, about 25 per cent more than the normal acreage of 10.4 million hectares.

Last year, these crops could be planted only on about 8.8 million hectares due to the drought.

Similarly, the acreage under kharif oilseeds is also expected to rise. The area under soyabean is estimated to be 8 per cent higher at 6.8 million hectares, against a normal of 6.3 million hectares.

The water level in the country's 70 major reservoirs continues to rise, though the rate of filling up of these dams has slowed with the decrease in monsoon precipitation.

The total storage on August 14 was 56 per cent higher than last year's corresponding level, though it is still around 25 per cent short of the last 10 years' average. Two reservoirs -- Somasila in Andhra Pradesh and Bhima in Maharashtra -- are still reporting unusable water.