Credit rating agency ICRA on Friday pegged India's economic growth rate at 5.9-6.3 per cent with agriculture poised to grow by 4.9-6.7 per cent while the industry and services sector is slated to post over 6.0 per cent growth during 2003-04.

ICRA's GDP forecast is higher than the 6.0 per cent projection made by the Reserve Bank of India and Asian Development Bank for this fiscal.

"It is our assessment that provided the southwest monsoon does not turn out to be a failure like last year, growth in 2003-04 is poised to show distinct improvement. We expect the GDP growth to be in the range of 5.9 and 6.3 per cent," ICRA said in its report 'Money & Finance'.

It said if growth estimates for 2002-03 were moved up and closer to a more realistic five per cent, the country's GDP growth would be close to six per cent.

"If no revision whatsoever is made to the advance estimate for 2002-03, then growth would be around 6.3 per cent," the report said.

In sectoral terms, ICRA said the agri sector could grow in the range of 4.9 and 6.7 per cent this fiscal compared to the estimated negative growth of 3.1 per cent in 2002-03.    

Industry is slated to grow by 5.4 per cent this fiscal as against 6.1 per cent in 2002-03, while the service sector is expected to grow by 6.6 per cent this fiscal, compared to 7.1 per cent of the last fiscal, it added.

Inflation rate should be in the range of 4-4.5 per cent, which is lower than that estimated by RBI, it said.

India's balance of payment situation is expected to improve with a current account surplus of over $5.0 billion in 2002-03 compared to $1.4 billion in 2001-02.