The gross domestic product growth rate for 2002-03 could be revised upwards to 5 per cent, said Subir Gokarn, chief economist, Credit Rating Information Services of India Ltd.

The relation between farm performance and that in industry and services in the economy had not weakened to such an extent that a significantly poor performance in agriculture would leave the other two sectors unaffected, he added.

Speaking at "Outlook 2004", organised by Crisil, Gokarn said the internal consistency of the Budget was dependent on industrial buoyancy and moderate inflation.

If oil prices shoot up, the Budget balance will not hold. He also predicted a 50-100 basis point fall in interest rates in the coming fiscal, despite industrial growth.

On specific sectors, in-house experts said riding on significant demand from China, steel prices would continue to rise at least till June 2003. '

Steel industry in China is increasing on the back of demand for housing and preparation for the Olympics.

The country, however, has adequate long product capacity. It is in flat products that China has a low capacity. India will have a huge market for these products for another two years, before China builds up its capacity.

The cement sector, which has seen demand recovery this fiscal, but no price increase because of overcapacity, can look forward to better times in 2003-04.

Prices will rise as demand growth outstrips capacity growth. While the price increase would be moderate in north and south, it would be subdued in the western parts of the country, they said.

If the war in Iraq is short, with no damage to existing oil fields and no effect on oil movements, it is not likely to result in sustained high oil prices in the next financial year.

After an initial spurt, the average oil prices could in fact fall from $27-$28 a barrel to $24-$25 a barrel, they said.

In the automobile sector, Crisil predicts a 9.5 per cent to 10 per cent growth in the long term for car sales. June may see a further cut in car prices as dealers pass on the remaining benefits of duty cuts to consumers.

In the two-wheeler category, demand for motorbikes will go up, but the growth rate will be lower than in 2002-03. Scooters will also see positive growth on account of the ungeared scooter segment.

Demand for commercial vehicles will rise, but the rate of growth may dip next year. Higher diesel prices will affect rofitability of truckers and affect demand.

In the long term, operating costs per ton km will decrease and the share of roads vis-a-vis rail will increase over the next 5 years because of the improvements expected in the road network in the country.