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India, Asian nations try to cushion economies
March 17, 2003 15:40 IST
Asian governments have resorted to a mixture of action and promises in recent weeks to calm market nerves and shore up the region's economies as a looming war has pushed up oil prices and worsened growth prospects.
Economist have cut forecasts for growth this year in Asia excluding China and India in recent weeks in anticipation of a marked export slowdown in the second quarter.
Steps taken include:
India: The Reserve Bank of India will step in to soothe local currency and money markets if a war breaks out in Iraq, a senior banking official said on Monday.
The official declined to elaborate, but the Reserve Bank of India has in the past sold dollars to prevent a sharp slide in the rupee and bought bonds to inject cash in the wake of adverse international developments.
Analysts said India's forex reserves of more than $73 billion, sufficient to pay for more than a year's imports, could cushion a short-term jump in oil prices.
India imports 70 per cent of its crude oil needs. Every dollar rise in crude prices inflates the oil import bill by $620 million a year.
The Philippines: The Philippines, which imports all its crude requirements, has said it has adequate supplies of oil which should last until the middle of June.
Energy undersecretary Benhur Salcedo has said oil inventories were expected to reach 76 days.
Salcedo said the Philippine government also struck deals with oil producers to ensure supplies in case war erupted in the Middle East.
Japan: Japanese newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun has reported that Tokyo was considering selling about 300,000 barrels a day of crude from state reserves should US-led forces invade Iraq.
But International Energy Agency Executive Director Claude Mandil said he had been assured by the Japanese government that it was not considering a unilateral release of oil stocks.
IEA member countries must hold stocks worth 90 days of net imports but have the right to make unilateral drawdowns from excess inventories. Both Japan and the United States, among others, have large volumes above the mandatory 90-day minimum.
Malaysia: Bankers expect Malaysia to raise $500 million through a global bond issue to fund an economic package next month to cushion its economy from a possible war in Iraq.
Malaysia has already unveiled measures to make its capital markets more investor-friendly. Stamp duty paid on stock market deals will be capped and initial public offerings speeded up.
Taiwan: Taiwan's central bank said on Thursday it would hold its first quarter board meeting on March 20 to review monetary policy, two days after the Federal Reserve's scheduled meeting.
The early timing of the Taiwan meeting -- the bank usually holds such gatherings in the last week of every quarter -- aroused market speculation that an interest rate cut was in store, especially if the Fed decided to trim rates on March 18.
Some market players said Taiwan's central bank could cut its headline discount rate, now at a record low of 1.625 per cent, because real market rates have already fallen to around 1.25 per cent, matching the current US Federal Fund rate.
Korea: South Korea said last week it will introduce additional steps, including tariff cuts on oil imports, to help shield its economy from rising crude prices.
A rise in crude prices has emerged as a major threat to growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy, which buys more than 70 per cent of its crude requirements from the Middle East.
Seoul said on February 24 it would cut import taxes on oil by 50 per cent to four won per litre in March and also cut import tariffs on crude oil and oil products by two percentage points to three per cent and five per cent, respectively.
Economists estimate that a $1 a barrel rise in crude oil prices costs South Korea $750 million a year, cuts economic growth by 0.1 percentage point and raises consumer inflation by 0.15 percentage point.
Gold, oil surge on war fears
Prices of gold and oil jumped on Monday, while stocks and the dollar slipped as markets braced for war after Washington gave the United Nations one more day to authorise force to compel Iraq's disarmament.
Crude oil futures charged more than a dollar higher in trading in Asia, after the United States and its allies seemed close to abandoning efforts to gain international approval for military action.
The dollar fell against the yen and the euro as President Saddam Hussein also girded for battle, telling military commanders Iraq would take the war anywhere in the world if attacked, 'wherever there is sky, land or water.'
Spot gold surged eight dollars in Asia trading on Monday, hitting $344 by 0640 GMT, compared with New York's last indicated price of $336.10.
Tokyo shares lost 1.64 per cent, Seoul stocks plunged 4.17 per cent and all other Asian markets were lower as well. European stocks were also expected to fall after posting their best back-to-back gains in years last week.
US President George W. Bush said on Sunday the 15-member Security Council had to agree in the next 24 hours on a resolution laying the groundwork for war.
He left no doubt after an emergency summit on Sunday with the leaders of Britain, Spain and Portugal on the Azores Islands that the United States and its allies would otherwise move to invade Iraq without UN backing.
"We concluded that tomorrow (Monday) is a moment of truth for the world," he told reporters.
Bush would go on national television this week warning Americans of the coming war and giving UN inspectors and humanitarian workers time to leave Iraq, US officials said.
Tokyo's Nikkei average closed down 1.64 per cent at 7,871.64, slightly above a 20-year low. Mizuho Financial Group, the world's largest bank, slid 8.32 per cent. The broader TOPIX index lost 1.13 per cent to 777.21.
"What makes us worried the most is a possible negative impact on the US economy from this Iraq issue -- the economy Japan is largely dependent on," said Hiroshi Nishida, general manager at Mitsubishi Trust Asset Management.
Sony Corp, the world's largest consumer electronics maker, lost 1.17 per cent and other big Asian exporters fell as well, after Bush's ultimatum pushed down the dollar.
South Korean shares ended at a fresh 17-month low as foreign investors fled the market. Samsung Electronics, the world's biggest memory chip maker, lost 2.87 per cent.
Taiwan stocks closed 2.64 per cent lower and Australia fell 0.51 per cent. Hong Kong was down 1.72 per cent and Singapore 1.94 per cent by mid-afternoon.
US light crude jumped $1.44 to $36.82 a barrel by 0640 GMT from Friday's close in New York, as traders fear war may disrupt supplies from producers in the Middle East, which pump about 40 per cent of globally-traded oil.
At 0645 GMT the dollar was at 117.82 yen from around 118.25 late on Friday but fears that Japanese authorities may intervene to prop up the dollar limited its downside. The euro had firmed to $1.0824 against 1.0739.
US Treasuries rallied in Asian trade on the looming war and rising expectations the US Federal Reserve may cut rates, or leave the door open for monetary easing down the road, at its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.
The Fed has chopped rates to a four-decade low but the job market is floundering and consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low in the world's biggest economy.
More clues on the US economy's health -- crucial to Asia's export-oriented economies -- will come from a report on housing starts on Tuesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and US consumer price data on Friday.
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