Civil Aviation Minister Syed Shahnawaz Hussain said on Tuesday the two national carriers, Air-India and Indian Airlines, would collectively suffer losses amounting to around Rs 110 crore (Rs 1.10 billion) if the war in Iraq did take place.

Both the airlines will have to stop flights to Bahrain, Kuwait and Dammam. “This war will hit the Indian aviation industry. It will have a much worse effect than the September 11 terrorist attack in the US,” Hussain said.

Moreover, the time taken for Air-India's flights to Europe and America will also increase by an hour and 20 minutes because they will have to avoid the war zone.

Aircraft will have to fly over the Caspian Sea and Ukraine by avoiding Iraqi airspace, which will result in a shift of 200 miles.

Hussain also added that if the war continued for a longer period, Iranian airspace would also have to be closed, which would result in a two-and-half hour increase in flight time to Europe.

A-I at present has eight flights per week to Dammam, six to Bahrain and seven to Kuwait. The termination of the operations and the increase in route length will amount to a Rs 60-70 crore (Rs 600-700 million) loss for A-I.

Indian Airlines operates seven flights to Bahrain and Kuwait. The war will result in an approximately Rs 40 crore (Rs 400 million) loss to the airline.

The minister said the International Air Transport Association would be holding an emergency meeting in the next few days.

He said it was likely that fares would be hiked by 8-10 per cent to set off the effect of the war surcharge and increase in aviation turbine fuel prices due to the war.

Hussain added that the 44 per cent increase in ATF prices from December in anticipation of the war had resulted in a Rs 50 crore (Rs 500 million) loss for A-I.

The fuel bill for A-I has gone up to Rs 1,000 crore (Rs 10 billion) for this year, while for IA it is up at Rs 1,315 crore (Rs 13.15 billion).

Meanwhile, the ministry with A-I and IA, is working overtime on an evacuation plan for Indian expatriates in the Persian Gulf region. The plan includes air-lifting almost 500,000 Indians over a period of seven days.

During the Gulf War of 1991, the government, with the help of A-I and IA, air-lifted around 300,000 Indians from the region.

Senior officials of the two airlines said they had been asked by the Centre to be ready for additional flights to the Gulf for the evacuation.

"We are already on alert," one of them said.

The government felt Indians in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE could come under threat if Iraq decides to embark upon reprisals in the face of a US-led attack, officials said.

Hence, the ministry has opened talks with the Saudi interior ministry to open the border for Indians who wish to move to Saudi Arabia for being air-lifted.

A government source said Riyadh and Jeddah, the two main cities of Saudi Arabia, would be the prime centres from where the evacuation was likely to be carried out, 'in case it gets too dangerous to operate out of Kuwait and Bahrain.'

Both IA and A-I have extensive operations in the Gulf, because of the very high Indian expatriate population in the region.

While A-I flies to Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Dubai, Jeddah, Muscat and Riyadh, domestic carrier IA operates flights to Kuwait, Bahrain, Doha, Ras-al-Khaimah, Sharjah and Muscat.

A-I last week increased the frequency of its flights to prime Gulf routes like Dubai, Muscat, Jeddah and Riyadh, though the move is not related to the evacuation plan.

It said it would operate daily non-stop flights to Dubai from Mumbai, Delhi and Kochi as well as daily flights between Kochi and Abu Dhabi as well as Muscat.

IA also operates on most of these routes, and operates daily flights to Dubai from Delhi, apart from operating on the Kochi-Muscat route.