Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar

Jayalalitha is bound to be part of the New Delhi power structure

Now that H D Deve Gowda is gone, what next?

Well, business as usual, I suppose. There will be an election. Someone will win. Someone will lose. Someone will be wiped out. Which party will fall into which category would depend, of course, on how realistically parties weigh their options and make adjustments.

Let us start with Tamil Nadu -- not because my own fate is going to be decided there, but because it is both geographically and politically the logical place to begin. A Dravida Munnetra Kazagham-Tamil Maanila Congress win is on the cards. Maybe not on the 1996 scale, but a win nonetheless.

The Pudukottai by-election has shown Jayalalitha Jayaram is bouncing back. How complete that rebound is the next election -- whenever it is held - will show. It would be miraculous if she were to worst her opponents everywhere; surprising if she won more seats than them overall. But it is only realistic to recognise that her victory is certain in a large number of constituencies.

While her All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham will be the prime beneficiary of the seats she wins, who else will she carry with her past the post? Her 1991-1996 partner, the Congress? Or the BJP, as rumoured? From a national perspective, that is the key parameter to watch.

Both the Congress and the BJP have no seats in Parliament from Tamil Nadu. Neither can they win any without Jayalalitha. So, whom she favours will have a crucial bearing on where the BJP and the Congress stand vis-a-vis each other. Either way, Jayalalitha is bound to be part of the New Delhi power structure. The country will, for the first time, see one or more AIADMK Union ministers.

What could upset this prospect is a surprise arrangement between the TMC and the Congress. G K Moopanar has been stopped from becoming the prime minister by Muthuvel Karunanidhi's objection. Moopanar's self-proclaimed goal of establishing Kamrajar aatchi (Kamraj raj) in the next state assembly election is also causing concern in DMK circles. Could this signal a TMC-INC rapprochement?

The relationship between the Congress high command and the TMC is as cordial as it is strained between the TMC and the TNCC. As Moopanar and Sitaram Kesri have no quarrels, and as quarrels between subalterns like self and P Chidambaram are no one's concern, a TMC-INC dimension might evolve in the run-up to the elections.

The TMC would not wish to merge with the Congress, but perhaps a DMK-TMC-INC axis might come into existence as a consequence of a tie-up, if it takes place, between Jayalalitha and the BJP. There is even the outside possibility of the TMC and the INC together roping in superstar Rajnikanth to do what would have happened last year if P V Narasimha Rao and the Congress Working Committee had listened to the unanimous view of Tamil Congressmen: A Congress-Rajnikanth front against both Dravidian parties.

Will that happen now?

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