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Indian economic boom to go on for 5 years: Crisil

November 07, 2003 17:25 IST

Rating agency Crisil on Friday said growth rates witnessed in the current fiscal in several sectors are expected to continue for more than three years, even as it predicted rising wages in the information technology sector by 2007-08.

"The growth rates witnessed in the current fiscal in construction, automobile and other sectors are expected to continue for the next 3-5 years," Subir Gokarn, chief economist Crisil, told reporters in Mumbai.

The agency has also forecast over 7.1 per cent economic growth in the wake of an excellent monsoon, but warned that the fiscal deficit would overshoot the target besides lower export growth.

"We expect agriculture to grow by 7.3 per cent, industry by 6.3 per cent and services by 7.5 per cent in 2003-04," Gokarn said.

Forecasting fiscal deficit to be at 5.8 per cent of the GDP as against the official target of 5.6 per cent, he said average inflation would hover around 4.8 per cent as against 2.9 per cent at the end of 2002-03.

Interest rates were likely to remain at current levels for the rest of the year and RBI's credit policy announcements on November 3 "may push the short end of the yield curve
down somewhat."

About Rs 66,000 crore (Rs 660 billion) would be spent in the next five years in the construction sector as against Rs 33,000 crore (Rs 330 billion) being spent in the preceding five years, he said.

The golden quadrilateral project would see investment inflows of about Rs 10,000 crore (Rs 100 billion) in the next five years.


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